{"id":2757,"date":"2013-12-14T23:48:02","date_gmt":"2013-12-15T03:48:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tusentakk2.com\/wordpress\/?p=2757"},"modified":"2013-12-14T23:48:02","modified_gmt":"2013-12-15T03:48:02","slug":"christmas-winds-are-coming-dec-3-6-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/tusentakk2.com\/wordpress\/2013\/12\/christmas-winds-are-coming-dec-3-6-2013\/","title":{"rendered":"Christmas Winds are coming! — Dec. 3-6, 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"

Concerned about the advent of \u201cChristmas Winds\u201d, we left Rodney Bay, St. Lucia, somewhat sooner than we had planned. But during our brief stay, we did have some fun. \u00a0First, we took a maxi to and from the Caribbean Movie Theatre, where we saw the second Hunger Games. \u00a0Second, acting on a suggestion from Sharon (Allegro<\/em>), we went for lunch to “A Taste of India”, where we ordered the Chef’s Sampler. \u00a0Four (!) different dishes, plus rice and flat bread and dessert. \u00a0Not realizing what we were getting into, we each ordered the special. \u00a0Oops! \u00a0One order is enough for two, with perhaps an extra order of rice. \u00a0The meal was fabulous, and we were told that the four\u00a0dishes are changed every day. \u00a0The special is served from noon until 4 PM. \u00a0We highly recommend it! \u00a0(Thanks, Sharon.) \u00a0Third, we had our teeth cleaned at one of the few dental offices in the Caribbean that have dental hygienists. \u00a0Normally it is done by the dentist and we find that they do a pretty quick and a not-so-thorough job. Fourth, we got our propane filled and lastly stocked up on provisions from the excellent grocery stores in Rodney Bay. \u00a0(Some of these activities were more fun than others.)<\/span><\/p>\n

For the benefit of our non-cruising readers, perhaps I should give a few words about Christmas Winds. Here are some excerpts from posting of Chris Parker, weather guru who provides advice to cruisers in the Caribbean. We are subscribers, and get our advice in emails, but he also provides his services via Single Sideband and webcasts.<\/p>\n

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Wx Update, E Caribbean, Wed4, 9am<\/span><\/p>\n

SYNOPSIS:<\/span>
\nPreviously, I’ve detailed the mild weather we’ve seen in the past few<\/span>
\ndays in most areas, and I believe suggested folks make good use of<\/span>
\nthis mild weather, as it would not last forever, and may not be<\/span>
\nrepeated anytime soon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Today it seems we’re on the cusp of what some might call the<\/span>
\n“Christmas Winds”. There’s nothing tying these winds to any Holiday –<\/span>
\nthey’re simply strong ENE-E Trades, which tend to be persistent (over<\/span>
\ndays or weeks)…and they’re driven by a tight pressure gradient<\/span>
\nbetween strong HI generally N\/NE of Bermuda, versus lower pressures<\/span>
\nover S America. Intervals of brisk ENE-E Trades can occur at various<\/span>
\ntimes from now through May. So call the “Christmas Winds”, or<\/span>
\nnot…but they’ll be infecting various parts of E Caribbean in the<\/span>
\ncoming days \u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

Thur5<\/span><\/p>\n

SYNOPSIS:<\/span><\/p>\n

Some folks may call them the “Christmas Winds”. Whatever you may<\/span>
\nchoose to call them…strong Trades, driven by a persistently-tight<\/span>
\nwind-gradient arrive in E Caribbean as FrontalTROF settles S-ward<\/span>
\nalong N Parts of E Caribbean about tomorow night…and gradually<\/span>
\nshifting S to S Parts of E Caribbean by late Sun8-Mon9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although we may see an occasional 24-36he interval of slight<\/span>
\nmoderation (down to ENE@20-25\/8’…for instance about Wed11 as a<\/span>
\nColdFRONT presses S&E in W Atlantic)…except for such brief intervals<\/span>
\nof slightly-less-bad conditions, I see no break to strong Trades in<\/span>
\nthe next few weeks.<\/span><\/p>\n

I’ve detailed this pending persistently-strong pattern I think for a<\/span>
\nweek-or-more, and with increasing clarity and forcefulness over time.<\/span>
\nIf you really really need to be somewhere at a certain time in the<\/span>
\nnext few weeks, you should consider getting there before the onset of<\/span>
\nstrong conditions, which may occur about 24hrs from now along N<\/span>
\nCaribbean \/ about 48hrs from now in mid-part of Windwards\/Leewards<\/span>
\nChain \/ 3 days from now S Parts of E Caribbean.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fri6<\/span><\/p>\n

SYNOPSIS:<\/span>
\nForecast models are in excellent agreement, and forecast confidence is<\/span>
\nrelatively-high…that we’re poised to enter an extended interval of<\/span>
\nbrisk ENE-E Trades\/seas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Long-range models suggest some moderation during the week of Mon23<\/span>
\n(Christmas week), with periods of several consecutive days of brisk<\/span>
\nENE-E Trades\/seas\/squalls and several consecutive days of milder<\/span>
\nconditions…beginning about Sun22 or Mon23.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sat7<\/span><\/p>\n

SYNOPSIS:<\/span>
\nFrontalTROF near NE Caribbean supports strong, gusty, squally<\/span>
\nconditions with large seas thru tomorrow…and drifts S slightly,<\/span>
\ninfecting more of E Caribbean tomorrow.<\/span><\/p>\n

By the time FrontalTROF settles into SE Caribbean tomorrow night-Mon9,<\/span>
\nit’ll be weaker, and conditions will not be as extreme as they are in<\/span>
\nN Areas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mon9<\/span><\/p>\n

SYNOPSIS:<\/span>
\nConditions become more-uniform throughout E Caribbean thru<\/span>
\ntomorrow…as FrontalTROF continues weakening as it settles S-ward,<\/span>
\nand all areas revert toward low-20s gusting toward 30k, from the E,<\/span>
\nand with 8-10′ seas, and not many squalls.<\/span><\/p>\n

Wed11-Fri13 morning gradually moderates (with greatest degree of<\/span>
\nmoderation N Parts of E Caribbean), but few areas settle much below<\/span>
\n20k\/7’…and there may be an increase in squalls some areas late<\/span>
\ntomorrow persisting into Fri13, with wind\/seas locally-higher near<\/span>
\nsqualls.<\/span><\/p>\n

Late-Fri13-Sun15 wind\/seas rebuild well into the 20s (seas 8-10′).<\/span><\/p>\n

Mon16-Tue17 may look much like Wed11-Thu12, with conditions settling<\/span>
\nsome, but not becoming “mild” or even “moderate” by most definitions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Next interval of “mild” or “moderate” conditions may be sometime after<\/span>
\nSun22.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tue10<\/span><\/p>\n

SYNOPSIS:<\/span>
\nExcept for a band of showers & squalls along very-South parts of E<\/span>
\nCaribbean (which should dissipate later today)…E Trades are uniform<\/span>
\n(and brisk) throughout E Caribbean today.<\/span><\/p>\n

Most areas see some moderation to Trades\/Seas tomorrow-Fri13, though<\/span>
\nwith some return of squalls in some areas.<\/span><\/p>\n

S Half of E Caribbean may begin rebuilding throughout the day<\/span>
\nFri13…but N Parts of E Caribbean should see the mildest combination<\/span>
\nof wind\/seas during the day Fri13…as ColdFRONT presses S&E in W<\/span>
\nAtlantic.<\/span><\/p>\n

Late Fri13…ColdFRONT stalls & weakens, and allows pressures N of E<\/span>
\nCaribbean to rebuild…boosting E Trades significantly beginning late<\/span>
\nFri13 (and earlier Fri13 S Parts).<\/span><\/p>\n

S&E Parts of E Caribbean (ABCs \/ Venezuela \/ Trinidad \/ Windwards \/<\/span>
\nLeewards) all surge to extremely-strong conditions by Sat14 &<\/span>
\nSun15…then settle into low-20s gusting toward 30k with 8′ seas<\/span>
\nMon16-Wed18. VI-PR-DR also build Sat14-Sun15 and remain 20g25k\/7’+<\/span>
\nMon16-Wed18.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further moderation seems possible at-least for 1-2 days about Thu19.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beginning in a few days, we’ll see a more-typical pattern gradually<\/span>
\nestablish…with the center of mid-Latitude HI pressure shifting to E<\/span>
\nAtlantic…driving stronger ENE-E Trades in Tropical Atlantic (E of<\/span>
\nCaribbean and also from Canaries WSW-ward)…and this should allow a<\/span>
\nlooser pressure gradient in W Atlantic (resulting in a significant<\/span>
\ndecrease from the persistently-strong Trades for E Caribbean).<\/span><\/p>\n

This new pattern seems to result in persistently-milder conditions in<\/span>
\nE Caribbean by about Mon23. This OUTLOOK is subject to change, but is<\/span>
\nconsistent with previous discussions.<\/span><\/p>\n

=======<\/span><\/p>\n

We left Rodney Bay on Dec. 5, and stopped at St. Pierre, Martinique, after a passage of some 43 nm. \u00a0Next day we moved on up to Prince Rupert Bay, Dominica, a distance of 55 nm.\u00a0To learn of our activities in Dominica, where we have been hunkered down ever since, see our next blog post.<\/p>\n

Here are some pictures I took during those passages.<\/p>\n

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